Trump’s Commanding Lead in Pre-Caucus Polls in Iowa

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By Carina

Former President Donald Trump is making a remarkable showing in Iowa, nearly reaching 60% support among likely Republican caucus-goers, as per a CBS News/YouGov poll.

This poll, released on a recent Sunday, places Trump well ahead of his nearest competitor, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a staggering 36 points. Trump’s support stands at 58%, while DeSantis has 22%.

Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina, is third in line with 13% of the respondents’ support.

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Following her are entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, garnering 4% and 3% respectively.

The Depth of Trump’s Support

The poll delved deeper, exploring who voters are considering supporting, beyond their current preference. An impressive 76% of respondents are contemplating backing Trump, a majority unmatched by any other candidate.

In contrast, only 18% are not considering him for the caucuses.

DeSantis, while trailing significantly, still shows potential, with 45% of respondents considering him. However, 22% admitted they need more information about him before making a decision.

The situation appears more challenging for the other candidates.

A plurality of respondents are not considering Haley, Ramaswamy, or Christie, with respective figures of 45%, 51%, and 76%. As for Asa Hutchinson, the former Governor of Arkansas, he’s even less in the race, with only 2% considering him and no support in terms of direct backing.

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Key Reasons Behind Trump’s Support

Among those who support or are considering Trump, 99% believe that “things were better off under” him. Moreover, a significant 92% resonate with the idea that he represents Iowa values.

Familiarity also plays a role, with three-quarters of the respondents feeling they know him better than other candidates.

When it comes to electability against Biden, Trump’s perceived strength is clear. 64% of respondents think he would definitely defeat Biden, with an additional 30% seeing him as a potential winner.

DeSantis, while second in this regard, has 40% of respondents confident in his victory over Biden, and 46% considering it a possibility.

Methodology and Reliability

The poll, conducted between December 8-15, surveyed 1,054 registered voters, including 478 likely Republican caucus-goers. The margin of error for the latter group is plus or minus 6.1%, as stated by CBS News.

In conclusion, this poll indicates a strong preference for Trump among Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, with a significant gap between him and other candidates.

His support is rooted in a belief in his leadership, representation of local values, and perceived electability in a potential rematch with Biden.

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