The latest national survey by Marquette Law School reveals that the upcoming presidential race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden is incredibly close. While Trump leads among registered voters with 51% compared to Biden’s 48%, the dynamics shift slightly when considering likely voters, with Biden taking a slim 51% to 49% lead.
The survey highlights a critical factor that could determine the election outcome: voter mobilization efforts. “The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months,” the survey notes.
Conducted from September 18 to 25, the poll delves deeper into the enthusiasm of registered voters for the 2024 election. Among those who express “very” or “somewhat” enthusiasm, Trump leads with 54% to Biden’s 46%.
In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the survey again showcases a tight contest. Among registered voters, DeSantis holds a slight lead of 51% to Biden’s 48%, while Biden takes a narrow 51% to 48% lead among likely voters.
Even among “reluctant” voters, Biden maintains a 51% to 47% advantage. However, 12% of voters intend to choose a candidate other than Biden or Trump, and 4% don’t plan to vote at all.
The survey also examined how voters perceived each candidate’s strengths. Registered voters generally believe that Trump is better equipped to handle the economy, immigration, inflation, job creation, and foreign relations. In contrast, Biden is viewed as more capable of handling Medicare, Social Security, abortion policy, and climate change. However, a notable portion of respondents either see no difference between the candidates or believe neither candidate would excel on these issues.
The survey, based on 1,007 adults nationwide, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
As the 2024 election looms, it’s clear that mobilizing their respective voter bases will be paramount for both Trump and Biden, as the race remains exceptionally close and unpredictable.