The day after Christmas marks the commencement of the countdown to the primary season, with just three weeks remaining until the Iowa Caucuses kick off the 2024 election.
Former President Trump holds a commanding position in Iowa and for the GOP nomination. However, a surprising twist unfolds in New Hampshire, where former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is making strides in narrowing the gap.
Trump’s Iowa Dominance and New Hampshire Surprises
According to Decision Desk and The Hill’s poll aggregation, Trump maintains a significant 17-point lead over Haley in Iowa.
Nevertheless, this reflects a notable decrease from his 27-point advantage on Dec. 6.
The unpredictability of every primary season is heightened this time due to the legal challenges looming over Trump’s head.
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Legal Twist: Colorado Supreme Court decision
In a pre-Christmas surprise, Colorado’s state Supreme Court delivered a ruling on Dec. 19, declaring in a 4-3 decision that Trump is disqualified from being president again under the 14th Amendment.
While unlikely to stand with the conservative Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., the ruling introduces uncertainty.
The Colorado justices delayed their decision until Jan. 4, allowing time for a Trump appeal, ensuring his presence on the Super Tuesday ballot on March 5.
New Hampshire’s potential upset
The focal point may shift to New Hampshire, where Haley aims to pull off a surprise and gather momentum.
Trump acknowledges her presence, dismissing the notion of a “Haley surge” in a Christmas Day post on Truth Social, emphasizing his lead in national surveys.
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Biden’s primary and approval challenges
President Biden, facing negative poll numbers, experiences frustration at the White House despite a growing economy.
Recent polls indicate Biden’s approval rating hitting new lows, raising concerns within his inner circle. Biden’s only primary challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), poses minimal competition.
However, the president’s approval ratings become a crucial focus.
Strategizing amid frustration: Biden’s meetings
To address the negative polling, Biden convenes meetings with advisers, both internal White House aides and external confidants.
While characterized as discussions to enhance messaging rather than panic, there is a recognition of “deep frustration” over polls.
The meetings aim to strengthen messaging on Biden’s age and accomplishments, acknowledging concerns about messaging consistency.
Biden’s balancing act: Governance and reelection
Biden faces the challenge of balancing governance with his reelection bid over the next 11 months.
Traveling the country, he seeks to convince voters that he deserves a second term.
Core issues such as abortion, the economy, and Trump’s perceived threat to democracy continue to be central to Biden’s messaging throughout the 2024 campaign season.
Biden’s assertion: ‘American democracy at stake’
During a recent trip to Massachusetts, Biden asserted, “American democracy — I give you my word as a Biden — I believe, is at stake.”
This underscores the gravity of the upcoming election as Biden navigates the complex governance landscape and political messaging.
In the post-Christmas political landscape, the stage is set for a dynamic and unpredictable 2024 election season, with candidates navigating challenges and surprises on the road to the primaries.
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